Ancient Migrations Using STR TMRCA

Ancient Migrations

An analysis of time frames using Y-DNA STR TMRCA estimations

It may be useful for family historians to use Y-Search data in order to understand ancient migration patterns for their family line.




A number of folks disregard the results from Y-Search that do not provide a DNA match beyond a Genetic Distance of 6. That's because most are only interested in genealogical time frames. Deep ancestry is usually left to obscure SNP notations that may or may not make sense to the average genealogist. The general migration path for an SNP can trace out a migration path dating to tens of thousands of years ago.


However, a family historian might be just as interested in what happened within the last two thousand years, in the hope that some day, supporting documentation may be found, or at least put on their search list.



If you have an idea of where your line originated from within the last two thousand years, then you have an idea of whether or not you should be interested in, for example, Normans. Or Saxons. Or Romans.
I had not completed my migration study of HAM DNA Group #1 when I posted the article (about being in a line from England that also matches Y-DNA for Norway and France. http://hamcountry-blog.blogspot.com/2011/05/england-traces-in-france.html - see cluster #2). However, from the chart listed there, I could have just as easily listed out the data in chronological order, such as:


present............U.S.

1577 AD........Virginia
1288 AD........County Somerset, England
913 AD........Broennoeysund, Norway

855 AD........Gloucester or London, England

638 AD........Dirksland or Margraten, Netherlands

465 AD........France

335 AD........Devonshire, England


Which should represent a broad outline of the migration of my own line (HAM DNA Group #1). Not a whole lot of movement there, apparently a fairly stable group. And, my analysis was not really completed (not all of the data was analyzed). The curious entry there (for my group) would be to determine where the group from Devonshire was at 335 AD.


The basic idea is to create the phylogram from the Y-Search data such that you know where the other Y-Search kits may have branched off. Then use Dean McGee's Utility to find the TMRCA in order to estimate an approximate timeline for the migration of your family group.

Without getting into very much detail, I have done this for another I1 haplotype group (WIDEBURG surname). For this study, the Y-Search data was divided into small groups, then Dean McGee's utility was run to get the TMRCA's, and the phylograms were run on the groups in order to determine what was branching off and what was not.


The Wideburg results resembled a migration pattern such as this:

Wideburg............ now.........Sweden

England16........ 1505.........Harpole, Northampton, England; London, England; Thurlby, England

England15........ 1580.........Norwich, England

Ireland19........... 1430.........County Kerry, Ireland

Germany24....... 1305.........Cabell County, Germany

Netherlands07.. 1305.........Netherlands

Denmark03....... 1230.........Stadil, Denmark

Germany08....... 1155.........Germany

England01......... 1080.........Essex, England

England04......... 1030.........Benwick, Cambs, England; Moulton, Northampton, England; Essex, England;

...............................................Newbold Verdon, England; Liverpool, England; London, England;

...............................................Bristol, Gloucestershire, England
Scotland06.........1030.........Renfrew (Port Glasgow or Paisley), Scotland; Pike County, Georgia, Scotland

France01............1030.........Tonquédec, France; Oberroedern, Alsace/Elsass, France

Denmark05..........805.........Laurbjerg, Denmark

Germany38..........730.........Germany

Germany50..........730.........Oberstenfeld, Germany

France03..............655.........France

Germany45..........580.........Falkenhagen, Pomerania/Pommern, Germany

Slovenia02...........500.........Gradenc, Slovenia

Switzerland11......405.........Buettenhardt, Schaffhausen, Switzerland

Sweden05...........155..AD.........Lindesburg Parish, Sweden

Which suggests an I1 migration pattern perhaps originating from Slovenia, and perhaps migrating through Germany via the Danube, through Denmark, France, Scotland, and finally arriving in England, then Sweden. A lot of movement for this group, and the analysis was done by placing similar kits within each country into small groups. The curious point here being to try to understand where the Switzerland group actually was located in 405 AD, as well as the location of the Sweden group in 155 AD.

However, the interesting point for the Wideburg surname is that they are found in Denmark at about the time of the Danish Vikings, and are found in France and England at about the time of the Norman invasion.
However, dividing kits matched by country is no guarantee that you will see movement as clearly defined. When the study was run on the STANLEY surname, the results appeared to be  unreliable for placement on the phylogenetic tree prior to 700 AD. The migration path for this R1b group traced out like this:



STANLEY..... ARJYZ .........Now


England046...........1360.....AD........GBWJC......Salkeld........Salkeld Parva, Cumberland, England
Scotlan033............1216.5..AD........GSMDW....Guthery.........Scotland
Germany017...........953.5..AD........4MRWP.......Harmon.......Woerttemberg/Wurttemberg, Germany
England096.............910.8..AD........83Y4V.........Curtis...........West Farmington, England
Sweden03...............836.0..AD........SKNTC.......Johansson...Jonsberg, Ostergotland, Sweden
Scotlan034..............727.4..AD........N9SQE.......Downie.........Lanarkshire, Scotland
Sweden07................684..AD........NHVM    Anderson   Goteborg, Goeteborg & Bohus, Sweden
France08..................598 ..AD........JQXXQ     Fousse     Alsace-Lorraine/Elsass-Lothringen, France
England075...............511..AD........England      (490 - 517 Battle of Mons Badonicus - Romano-British under Ambrosius Aurelianus decisively defeat the Anglo-Saxon invaders.)
Sicily01 ....................488..AD........Agira, Sicily
Scotlan032 ...............440..AD........Scotland
Sweden06 ...............408 ..AD........Nordmaling, V???sterbotten, Sweden  (Visigoths under Alaric sack Rome in 410.)
Norway03 ................398 ..AD........Mandal, Norway
Germany019..............391..AD........Roethenbach an der Pegnitz, Bavaria/Bayern, Germany (Visigoths defeat the Romans at the Battle of Adrianople in 388)
England097..............346 ..AD........Hertfordshire, England
Germany021..............344..AD........Rheinland-Pfalz/Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany
Germany027..............316..AD........Wurzburg, Germany           (Wurzburg is, perhaps, 150 miles from Trier.)
Germany024..............306 ..AD........Germany   (307 Emperor Constantine is in Britain, and sends troops against Germanic tribes along the Rhine, begins a major expansion of Trier.)
England100..............303 ..AD........Plymouth, Devon or Devonshire, England
England103..............285..AD........Baldwin, Isle of Man, United Kingdom
England098..............285 ..AD........Chorley, England    (Roman Carausius, is put in charge of operations against Saxon and Frankish pirates on the Saxon Shore.)
Italy07  ......................196..AD........Mezzojuso, Italy      (Roman Battle of Lugdunum was fought in 197 AD)
Germany026..............180 ..AD........Schnait im Remstal, Wuerttemberg, Germany  (Roman Praetorian Prefect Teratenius Paternus defeats the Quadi.)
England106 ..............168..AD........Corby, Northamptonshire, England      (The Marcomannic Wars ca 166 - 180)
Germany028..............151..AD........Friedrichroda, Germany
England108 ..............133 ..AD........England              (Antonine begins construction on his wall in 142 AD)
England110.................80..AD........England              (Hadrian begins construction on his wall in 122 AD)
Germany029...............59 ..AD........Hofheim, Bergstrasse, Hessen, Germany (Gnaeus Domitius Corbulo captures Tigranocerta)
Netherla05..................57..AD........Domburg, Zeeland, Netherlands
Australia3...................23 ..AD........Australia             (Australia isn't settled by Europeans until about 1600)
Germany031................8..AD........Wittenberg, Germany (Roman Battle of the Teutoburg Forest)
France09 ....................3  BC..........Bourges, France   [Caesar conquers Bourges (Avaricum) ca 50 BC]


Looks like the last 1,000 years have mostly been in England and Scotland. Prior to that they have a German element, with some indication of the possibility of some ties to Italy and Sicily. So, it looks like that STANLEY line may be Anglo Saxon, with something that looks "Romanesque."


The timeline for the period from 0 AD to 700 AD was updated on Nov 27. 2011, but the phylogeny did not appear to be stable. That is, it is likely that the timeline would may be correct (mostly due to the number of markers tested per kit for the period). The original article only listed the results back to 727 AD. Historical references for the date and location were taken from Wikipedia.


The oldest STR match found indicating possible origins in France.

For the Stanley surname, the Y-Search results had been divided into some 158 groups, mostly 67 markers with less than 20 kits that had been tested to 95 markers. Most of these beyond 67 markers were panel upgrades, which caused a little bit of manual effort to sort in correct order.


The dates do not really provide an explanation of the reasons for migration. It might be reasonable to expect that short periods of migration along coastal areas or waterways to be trading activity. But, it might be difficult to interpret the difference between trading activity and military operations. More information with regard to historical references may help in the interpretation of the activities during the time periods.
   
Wikipedia articles:


Roman Battles:     http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Roman_battles
Antonine Wall:      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonine_Wall
Hadrian's Wall:      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hadrian%27s_Wall
Marcomannic Wars:    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcomannic_Wars

If you would like me to do this for your surname, please see my Y-DNA services web page. 


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