Sunday, August 18, 2013

British Monarchy / HAM Y-DNA Comparison Study



British Monarchy / HAM Y-DNA Comparison Study



August, 2013



  
In August, 2013 Bradley T. Larkin released his study of the “Y-DNA of the British Monarchy.” The first such study of its kind, the review attempted to identify the Y-DNA of some major branches of the British Monarchy. The main lines with Y-DNA allele values given were Mountbatten, Stuart, and Windsor. The data was composed of roughly 24 Y-DNA allele (repeat) values, and described as R1b with terminal SNP’s appearing to match either U106 or L21.
  

Whereas 24 Y-DNA marker values are notoriously insufficient for an accurate comparison analysis, it may nevertheless be interesting to see who matches within the HAM DNA Project.
  

One final cautionary note regarding possible errors could be attributed to some error in sampling assumptions by Mr. Larkin.
  

Examination of the suggested Monarchy haplotypes found that there was a distant match to the largest U106 HAM DNA Group (#2), but detailed examination showed that the closest matches in our project appear to be HAM DNA Groups 3, 6, 8, and 12. However, to compound the problem of accuracy, the matching groups generally only tested to 25 to 37 markers.
  
  


HAM DNA Project / British Monarchy Comparison


 


  
  
It appears that there were not enough markers given for the modals of U106 and L21 to provide much resolution between the two.
  

Given the above phylogenetic graph, it is immediately apparent that the area of interest is the following area:
 




 

Genetic Distance







The closest Genetic Distance overall was from HAM DNA Group #3. 
  


The next illustration shows the closest matches within the HAM DNA Project to the proposed British Monarchy:






The HAM DNA participant with the closest Genetic Distance is found to be kit 43250, but that kit has only tested to 25 markers. The number of markers, as we see later, affects the accuracy of the TMRCA.
  
  
  
TMRCA
  
   
  
HAM British Monarchy TMRCA Table 1

 

Of the closest matching groups in the current HAM DNA Project, it was found that Group #2 had a closest match to Windsor with an estimated TMRCA of 1575 Years before present (+/- 354 years).
  

Group #3 had a closest match to Stuart with an estimated TMRCA of 1150 Years before present (+/- 259 years).
  

Group #6 had a closest match to Stuart with an estimated TMRCA of 950 Years before present (+/- 214 years).
  

Group #8 had a closest match to Windsor with an estimated TMRCA of 1150 Years before present (+/- 259 years).
  

Group #12 had a closest match to Stuart with an estimated TMRCA of 1550 Years before present (+/- 349 years).

 



It would appear that given the information that we have today, kit 82227 matches the most recent connection to the Stuart British Monarchy.
  
The group with the closest Genetic Distance would be Group #3.

 

 

Sources:



Larkin, Bradley T. “Y-DNA of the British Monarchy” August, 2013

HAM DNA Project (Y-DNA results from Family Tree DNA)

Dean McGee’s Y-DNA Comparison Utility

Phylip software, Kitsch package, Fitch-Margoliash method

 







 













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